Forward Madison 3-2 Greenville Triumph — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.8pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forward Madison EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +5%
1.16/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.53
-26% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
17.6 Crosses 20.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forward Madison
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Greenville Triumph
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
328 Passes 288
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.03.2024 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 0-0 HT 0-0 Forward Madison Forward Madison USL1
30.07.2023 Forward Madison Forward Madison 1-1 HT 1-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
02.07.2023 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 1-0 HT 1-0 Forward Madison Forward Madison USL1
16.04.2023 Forward Madison Forward Madison 4-1 HT 2-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
04.09.2022 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 2-2 HT 1-1 Forward Madison Forward Madison USL1
12.06.2022 Forward Madison Forward Madison 3-2 HT 1-1 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forward Madison
3-2
AWAY Greenville Triumph
1.76 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
405 Passes 367
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forward Madison squeezed past Greenville Triumph 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Forward Madison made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Forward Madison had 52% of the ball to Greenville Triumph's 48%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.76 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forward Madison had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Forward Madison and 1.17 for Greenville Triumph.

What was the final score of Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph?

Forward Madison 3-2 Greenville Triumph in the USA - USL League 1 on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forward Madison win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Forward Madison 37%, draw 31%, Greenville Triumph 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forward Madison), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forward Madison) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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