Genoa 1-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 May 2025

Genoa
1 - 2 HT 0 - 0
Milan
📅05/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Genoa vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.54
Away Pick
56%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.97
Over
54%
1.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.74
No
46%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.54
2-3
46%
1.8
4-5
24%
3.27
6+
6%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.26
1/2
4%
22.9
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
8%
9.33
X/2 ✓
20%
4.41
X/X
14%
5.2
2/1
2%
35.0
2/2
32%
2.28
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · X/2 at 4.41 — our 20% vs market 18.1%. Landed.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Genoa v Milan — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Genoa The Market 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 57%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.04 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 2.01
1.63 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.14
Average Attack Strength Strong
Average Defense Strength Weak
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 84%
18 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Genoa vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Milan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.56 xG 1.45
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
314 Passes 488
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
05.05.2024 Milan Milan 3-3 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
07.10.2023 Genoa Genoa 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
15.04.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
13.01.2022 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTK
01.12.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-3 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA

Genoa 1-2 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
1 - 2
AWAY Milan
0.60 xG 0.99
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
271 Passes 465
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW Genoa vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Milan came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Genoa 2-1 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 54% for over 2.5, 54% on both teams scoring.

Under the surface, Genoa had 40% of the ball to Milan's 60%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.60 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Genoa and 2.00 for Milan.

Genoa vs Milan Result & Final Score

Genoa 1 - 2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Genoa vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Genoa 20%, draw 24%, Milan 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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