Atletico Paranaense 1-4 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 33% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.3pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.5pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 15%
+12% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.82/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.47
+21% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
428 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 70%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
18.0 Crosses 15.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-4
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.38 xG 2.72
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
248 Passes 408
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP cruised past Atletico Paranaense 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Atletico Paranaense carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 40% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 60%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.38 to 2.72.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo SP?

Atletico Paranaense 1-4 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 55%, draw 26%, Botafogo SP 19%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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