Chapecoense vs Criciuma Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chapecoense v Criciuma — Team-Based Signals
Chapecoense vs Criciuma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
Chapecoense
BR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Criciuma
BR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Criciuma
BRCAT1
2-0
HT 1-0
Chapecoense
BR2
2-3
HT 2-1
Criciuma
BR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Chapecoense
BRCAT1
Chapecoense 2-1 Criciuma — Actual Match Statistics
Chapecoense squeezed past Criciuma 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Chapecoense had 44% of the ball to Criciuma's 56%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.89 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chapecoense's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chapecoense and 1.33 for Criciuma.
What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Criciuma?
Chapecoense 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Criciuma?
Before kick-off our model rated an Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 35%, draw 29%, Criciuma 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.