Chapecoense 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
5.04
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.7pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.3pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 37%
-13% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.13/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.94
-25% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
22.3 Crosses 18.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Criciuma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.30 xG 1.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
245 Passes 303
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2023 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
24.06.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
22.01.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRCAT1
26.09.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
11.06.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-3 HT 2-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
14.03.2021 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
1.89 xG 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
287 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense squeezed past Criciuma 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 44% of the ball to Criciuma's 56%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.89 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chapecoense's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chapecoense and 1.33 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Criciuma?

Chapecoense 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 35%, draw 29%, Criciuma 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Criciuma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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