Independiente Del Valle 1-2 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
14%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-7.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.74/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.57
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 76%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
19.7 Crosses 14.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Emelec
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.84 xG 0.90
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
403 Passes 199
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.09.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
01.04.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.10.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
29.04.2023 Emelec Emelec 2-3 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
18.07.2022 Emelec Emelec 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
28.02.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-2
AWAY Emelec
2.30 xG 0.60
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
473 Passes 190
92% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec squeezed past Independiente Del Valle 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Del Valle carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 68% of the ball to Emelec's 32%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.30 to 0.60 — on chances, Independiente Del Valle could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.17 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec?

Independiente Del Valle 1-2 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 55%, draw 24%, Emelec 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ BTTS No
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