Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
18%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.4
No
61%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-10.8pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.5pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+8.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
38%
+1.5pp
61%
BTTS No
62%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 12%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.64/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.90
-10% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 72%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
19.8 Crosses 13.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Emelec
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.28
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 192
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
01.04.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.10.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-1 Emelec Emelec EKV1
29.04.2023 Emelec Emelec 2-3 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
18.07.2022 Emelec Emelec 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
28.02.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
13.12.2021 Emelec Emelec 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-1
AWAY Emelec
2.57 xG 0.41
72% Ball Possession 28%
23 Total Shots 3
12 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
487 Passes 152
91% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 7
11 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Emelec 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 72% of the ball to Emelec's 28%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 2.57 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.17 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec?

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 61%, draw 22%, Emelec 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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