Aucas 1-2 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -13%
1.37/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.43
+6% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.3 Crosses 19.1
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.39 xG 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 Passes 247
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
29.10.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
09.10.2022 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
14.05.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
24.07.2021 Aucas Aucas 1-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
1-2
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.03 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
11 Corners 4
259 Passes 143
74% Pass Accuracy 63%
15 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa edged past Aucas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aucas had 61% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 39%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 2.03 to 1.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aucas.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 0.33 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?

Aucas 1-2 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aucas 43%, draw 30%, Mushuc Runa 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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