Aucas vs Mushuc Runa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aucas v Mushuc Runa — Team-Based Signals
Aucas vs Mushuc Runa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 1-0
Mushuc Runa
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
Aucas
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
Mushuc Runa
EKV1
1-1
HT 0-1
Aucas
EKV1
1-1
HT 0-0
Mushuc Runa
EKV1
Aucas 1-2 Mushuc Runa — Actual Match Statistics
Mushuc Runa edged past Aucas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Aucas had 61% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 39%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 2.03 to 1.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aucas.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 0.33 for Mushuc Runa.
What was the final score of Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?
Aucas 1-2 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aucas 43%, draw 30%, Mushuc Runa 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.