El Nacional vs Cumbaya Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Cumbaya — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Cumbaya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Cumbaya
EKV1
2-0
HT 2-0
El Nacional
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV2
2-1
HT 1-0
Cumbaya
EKV2
1-1
HT 1-1
El Nacional
EKV2
El Nacional 2-1 Cumbaya — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional edged past Cumbaya 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, El Nacional had 51% of the ball to Cumbaya's 49%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.62 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Nacional's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cumbaya led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for El Nacional and 1.17 for Cumbaya.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
El Nacional 2-1 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 50%, draw 31%, Cumbaya 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.