Monterey Bay 1-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 24%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
2.11/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
+73% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 73%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
16.3 Crosses 12.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Miami FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.85 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
376 Passes 409
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
25.06.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
25.09.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
1-1
AWAY Miami FC
2.32 xG 1.81
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
205 Passes 302
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterey Bay vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay and Miami FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Monterey Bay at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 43% of the ball to Miami FC's 57%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 2.32 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Monterey Bay and 0.33 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Miami FC?

Monterey Bay 1-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 49%, draw 27%, Miami FC 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Monterey Bay), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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