Miami FC 1-0 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.3pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
1.27/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.47
+6% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
15.4 Crosses 22.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.31 xG 1.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
428 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
25.09.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
1-0
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.02 xG 0.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
371 Passes 510
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
13 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC edged past Monterey Bay 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monterey Bay at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Miami FC had 43% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 57%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.02 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Miami FC's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Miami FC and 0.50 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Monterey Bay?

Miami FC 1-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 34%, draw 24%, Monterey Bay 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monterey Bay) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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