Miami FC vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Miami FC v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals
Miami FC vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Miami FC
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
Monterey Bay
USLP
Miami FC 1-0 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics
Miami FC edged past Monterey Bay 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Monterey Bay at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Miami FC had 43% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 57%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.02 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Miami FC's control.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Miami FC and 0.50 for Monterey Bay.
What was the final score of Miami FC vs Monterey Bay?
Miami FC 1-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Monterey Bay?
Before kick-off our model rated an Monterey Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 34%, draw 24%, Monterey Bay 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.