North Carolina 4-6 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+7.1pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.1pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 50%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.11/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.94
-32% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +105%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
14.2 Crosses 19.9
0.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Louisville City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.03 xG 1.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
361 Passes 371
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.06.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
07.03.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
24.08.2019 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
10.03.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 4-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
10.10.2018 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 0-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
24.06.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 2-2 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
4-6
AWAY Louisville City
1.87 xG 3.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 13
277 Passes 230
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City saw off North Carolina 6-4 away from home. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 6-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, North Carolina had 53% of the ball to Louisville City's 47%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.87 to 3.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for North Carolina and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Louisville City?

North Carolina 4-6 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 36%, draw 22%, Louisville City 42%. The final score 4-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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