Loudoun United 0-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 33% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.49/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.68
-8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
16.0 Crosses 16.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.00 xG 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
324 Passes 400
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-1 HT 2-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
19.06.2022 Loudoun United Loudoun United 4-3 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
0-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.07 xG 0.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
382 Passes 369
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising nicked a narrow win over Loudoun United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Loudoun United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Loudoun United had 52% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 48%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.07 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Loudoun United and 3.00 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Phoenix Rising?

Loudoun United 0-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Loudoun United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 44%, draw 28%, Phoenix Rising 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Loudoun United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Loudoun United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
1 Sep 2024
01:00 Oakland Roots vs New Mexico United Analysis →
02:00 Miami FC vs Monterey Bay Analysis →
02:00 Indy Eleven vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
02:00 Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic Analysis →
02:30 North Carolina vs Louisville City Analysis →
02:30 Rhode Island vs Birmingham Legion Analysis →