Louisville City vs North Carolina Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Louisville City v North Carolina — Team-Based Signals
Louisville City vs North Carolina Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Louisville City
USLP
1-0
HT 0-0
North Carolina
USLP
4-1
HT 1-0
Louisville City
USLP
2-1
HT 0-1
North Carolina
USLP
2-2
HT 1-1
Louisville City
USLP
Louisville City 2-1 North Carolina — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City nicked a narrow win over North Carolina 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Louisville City had 38% of the ball to North Carolina's 62%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.70 to 0.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Louisville City's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Louisville City and 1.40 for North Carolina.
What was the final score of Louisville City vs North Carolina?
Louisville City 2-1 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Louisville City vs North Carolina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 52%, draw 24%, North Carolina 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.