Oakland Roots 0-1 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
36%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.88
No
61%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
16%
3.96
6+ Goals
7%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 38% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
36%
Away Win
47%
-11.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.1pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oakland Roots EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 51%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.32/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.31
-21% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +45%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 76%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
17.0 Crosses 18.9
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oakland Roots
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.52 xG 1.90
56% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 292
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 2-5 HT 0-3 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
16.06.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-3 HT 0-1 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
03.09.2023 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 0-1 HT 0-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
21.05.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-1 HT 1-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
28.08.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-0 HT 1-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
10.07.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 3-3 HT 2-1 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oakland Roots
0-1
AWAY Sacramento Republic
1.20 xG 1.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
273 Passes 176
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic squeezed past Oakland Roots 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Sacramento Republic made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Oakland Roots had 58% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 42%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.20 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Oakland Roots and 2.50 for Sacramento Republic.

What was the final score of Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic?

Oakland Roots 0-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Oakland Roots 35%, draw 29%, Sacramento Republic 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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