Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 5 Jul 2024

Incheon United
1-1 HT 0-1
Gimcheon Sangmu
📅05/07/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
South Kore - K League Classic – 2024

Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
21%
4.9
1/2
4%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
16%
6.42
X/2
13%
4.82
X/X
10%
3.9
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.25
2/X
9%
13.1
Value flag · 1/1 at 4.9 — our 21% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
30%
+11.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.5pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-6.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Incheon United v Gimcheon Sangmu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Incheon United EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.70/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.88
+7% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
285 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
15.0 Crosses 18.5
0.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Incheon United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 1.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 434
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.06.2024 Incheon United Incheon United 0-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
05.05.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-2 HT 1-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
18.09.2022 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
16.07.2022 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 0-1 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
13.03.2022 Incheon United Incheon United 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
29.08.2020 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 3-1 HT 2-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR

Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Incheon United
1-1
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Incheon United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Incheon United had 47% of the ball to Gimcheon Sangmu's 53%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Incheon United and 1.00 for Gimcheon Sangmu.

What was the final score of Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu in the South Kore - K League Classic on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Incheon United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Incheon United 41%, draw 25%, Gimcheon Sangmu 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Incheon United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Incheon United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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