Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 5 Jul 2024

📅05/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
56%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.97
Over 2.5
59%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
56%
Away Win
52%
+4.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
47%
-5.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
53%
+5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 56%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.90/4.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.52/2.03
+78% / -72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -50%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
31.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
24.09.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
27.06.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-5 HT 0-3 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
24.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITK
14.05.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
1-0
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris squeezed past Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Zalgiris Vilnius at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 35% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 65%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.50 for Zalgiris Vilnius.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 23%, draw 22%, Zalgiris Vilnius 56%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →