Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.9pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.99/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.19
+39% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
24.09.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
27.06.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-5 HT 0-3 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
24.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITK
14.05.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
14.03.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-0
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius edged past Kauno Zalgiris 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zalgiris Vilnius as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 64% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris's 36%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.50 for Kauno Zalgiris.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 47%, draw 27%, Kauno Zalgiris 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ BTTS Yes
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