HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
HFX Wanderers v Vancouver FC — Team-Based Signals
HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-1
HFX Wanderers
CAPL
3-0
HT 1-0
Vancouver FC
CAPL
2-1
HT 1-1
HFX Wanderers
KAPL
1-1
HT 1-1
Vancouver FC
CAPL
HFX Wanderers 3-2 Vancouver FC — Actual Match Statistics
HFX Wanderers edged past Vancouver FC 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had HFX Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, HFX Wanderers had 56% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 44%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.99 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold HFX Wanderers's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vancouver FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for HFX Wanderers and 1.17 for Vancouver FC.
What was the final score of HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?
HFX Wanderers 3-2 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a HFX Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split HFX Wanderers 44%, draw 25%, Vancouver FC 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HFX Wanderers) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.