HFX Wanderers 3-2 Vancouver FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.95
Over
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.59
2-3
39%
1.81
4-5
23%
3.34
6+
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.59 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+99% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.3 Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HFX Wanderers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.71 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
390 Passes 322
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.06.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-4 HT 0-2 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
19.04.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-0 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
23.09.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-1 HT 0-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
12.08.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-0 HT 1-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
08.07.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-1 HT 1-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
29.04.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-1 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HFX Wanderers
3-2
AWAY Vancouver FC
2.99 xG 1.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 Passes 258
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HFX Wanderers edged past Vancouver FC 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had HFX Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, HFX Wanderers had 56% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 44%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.99 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold HFX Wanderers's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vancouver FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for HFX Wanderers and 1.17 for Vancouver FC.

What was the final score of HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?

HFX Wanderers 3-2 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HFX Wanderers vs Vancouver FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a HFX Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split HFX Wanderers 44%, draw 25%, Vancouver FC 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HFX Wanderers) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HFX Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →