Junior 2-2 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒01:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Junior EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.63/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.38
+8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
16.8 Crosses 13.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Junior
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.66 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 283
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
15.09.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-5 HT 1-3 Junior Junior KOL
04.04.2023 Junior Junior 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
26.09.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Junior Junior KOL
03.04.2022 Junior Junior 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
21.11.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-1 Junior Junior KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Junior
2-2
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.43 xG 0.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
436 Passes 167
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Junior vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Junior and Alianza Petrolera couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Junior at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Junior had 67% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 33%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.43 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Junior had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Junior and 0.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Junior vs Alianza Petrolera?

Junior 2-2 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Junior vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Junior 55%, draw 25%, Alianza Petrolera 20%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Junior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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