05/10/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
AFC Sudbury vs Cambridge United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
39%
4-5
24%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
AFC Sudbury win — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
BTTS No
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
72%
21%
Draw
17%
21%
Away Win
11%
50%
Under 2.5
41%
50%
Over 2.5
59%
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
55%
BTTS No
55%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AFC Sudbury v Cambridge United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
AFC Sudbury
EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY
Cambridge United
EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
61%
Ball Possession
39%
14
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Target
3
7
Corners
3
444 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
235 · 69%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
AFC Sudbury vs Cambridge United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Cambridge United edged past AFC Sudbury 1-0 away from home.
This one beat our numbers. AFC Sudbury carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of AFC Sudbury vs Cambridge United?
AFC Sudbury 0-1 Cambridge United in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AFC Sudbury vs Cambridge United?
Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Sudbury win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split AFC Sudbury 58%, draw 21%, Cambridge United 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (AFC Sudbury) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (AFC Sudbury)
✓ BTTS No
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İNFAT
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5 Oct 2024