AFC Totton 1-0 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 5 Oct 2024

AFC Totton
1-0
Merthyr Town
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2024/2025

AFC Totton vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.7pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Totton v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Totton EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

AFC Totton vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Totton
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-3 HT 1-1 AFC Totton AFC Totton İNGNLP
31.10.2023 AFC Totton AFC Totton 2-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town FAK
POST-MATCH AFC Totton vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Totton nicked a narrow win over Merthyr Town 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AFC Totton as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AFC Totton had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for AFC Totton and 1.00 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of AFC Totton vs Merthyr Town?

AFC Totton 1-0 Merthyr Town in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Totton vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Totton win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AFC Totton 45%, draw 26%, Merthyr Town 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Totton) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Totton) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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