05/10/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
2-2
Hashtag United vs Hitchin Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
36%
4-5
19%
6+
21%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
Over 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
29%
Draw
22%
19%
Away Win
22%
43%
Under 2.5
35%
57%
Over 2.5
65%
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
50%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hashtag United v Hitchin Town — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Hashtag United
EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
Hitchin Town
EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
52%
Ball Possession
48%
16
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
371 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
349 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Hashtag United vs Hitchin Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Hashtag United edged past Hitchin Town 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Hashtag United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Hashtag United vs Hitchin Town?
Hashtag United 1-0 Hitchin Town in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hashtag United vs Hitchin Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Hashtag United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hashtag United 52%, draw 29%, Hitchin Town 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hashtag United) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Hashtag United)
✗ Over 2.5
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İNFAT
More England - FA Cup
5 Oct 2024