05/10/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Leiston vs Horsham Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
43%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
28%
Draw
25%
35%
Away Win
33%
55%
Under 2.5
43%
45%
Over 2.5
57%
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
50%
BTTS No
40%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leiston v Horsham — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Leiston
EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY
Horsham
EU Bookmakers 37%
+49% /
+49%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+124%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
51%
Ball Possession
49%
12
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
5
325 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
307 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Leiston vs Horsham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Leiston and Horsham shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Leiston vs Horsham?
Leiston 1-1 Horsham in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leiston vs Horsham?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leiston win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leiston 37%, draw 28%, Horsham 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leiston) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Leiston)
✓ Under 2.5
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İNFAT
More England - FA Cup
5 Oct 2024