05/10/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
1-2
Tavistock vs Horndean Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
44%
4-5
23%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
13%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
24%
Draw
24%
29%
Away Win
30%
47%
Under 2.5
40%
53%
Over 2.5
60%
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
48%
BTTS No
38%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tavistock v Horndean — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Tavistock
EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Horndean
EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
275 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
382 · 86%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Tavistock vs Horndean
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Tavistock got the better of Horndean 3-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Tavistock as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
What was the final score of Tavistock vs Horndean?
Tavistock 3-1 Horndean in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tavistock vs Horndean?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tavistock win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tavistock 48%, draw 24%, Horndean 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tavistock), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Tavistock)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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İNFAT
More England - FA Cup
5 Oct 2024