Gernika 5-2 Izarra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.51
Over 2.5
48%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
62%
-10.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
38%
+10.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Izarra EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.40/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.56
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gernika
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Izarra
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Izarra Izarra 2-2 HT 1-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
03.09.2023 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 0-1 Izarra Izarra İS4
12.03.2023 Izarra Izarra 1-2 HT 1-1 Gernika Gernika İS4
23.10.2022 Gernika Gernika 2-1 HT 1-1 Izarra Izarra İS4
23.01.2022 Izarra Izarra 1-1 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
05.09.2021 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 0-1 Izarra Izarra İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
5-2
AWAY Izarra
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gernika vs Izarra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika ran out comfortable winners over Izarra 5-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gernika as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gernika had 48% of the ball to Izarra's 52%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gernika had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gernika and 1.17 for Izarra.

What was the final score of Gernika vs Izarra?

Gernika 5-2 Izarra in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs Izarra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gernika win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gernika 47%, draw 25%, Izarra 27%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gernika) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gernika) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS4 More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
5 Oct 2024
17:00 RC Deportivo Fabril vs Langreo Analysis →
18:00 Elche II vs Andratx Analysis →
18:00 Juventud Torremolinos vs Cadiz II Analysis →
19:00 CD Laredo vs Coruxo Analysis →
19:00 CD Guadalajara vs SS Reyes Analysis →
19:30 Subiza vs SD Logrones Analysis →