Austria Wien 2-1 Grazer AK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.66
2-3 Goals
35%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.22
X/2
10%
9.52
X/X
14%
5.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.8
2/2
10%
6.59
2/X
4%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.83/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.47
+12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.9 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Wien
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Grazer AK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
15.02.2019 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
25.11.2006 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 2-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
01.10.2006 Grazer AK Grazer AK 1-3 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
18.07.2006 Austria Wien Austria Wien 0-0 HT 0-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
08.04.2006 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-0 HT 0-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
15.03.2006 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-1 HT 2-1 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Wien
2-1
AWAY Grazer AK
1.63 xG 1.16
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
498 Passes 247
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Austria Wien vs Grazer AK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien squeezed past Grazer AK 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Austria Wien as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Austria Wien had 63% of the ball to Grazer AK's 37%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.63 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Wien had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Austria Wien and 1.00 for Grazer AK.

What was the final score of Austria Wien vs Grazer AK?

Austria Wien 2-1 Grazer AK in the Austria - Bundesliga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Wien vs Grazer AK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Austria Wien 50%, draw 24%, Grazer AK 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austria Wien), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
5 Oct 2024
18:00 Wolfsberger AC vs Hartberg Analysis →
18:00 Swarovski Tirol vs Blau-Weiss Linz Analysis →