Dender EH 1-0 Sporting Charleroi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.9
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
11%
6.55
X/2
19%
4.74
X/X
10%
4.21
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.1
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.4pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.8pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dender EH EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 46%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
0.95/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.27
-29% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
Crosses 17.3
Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dender EH
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
16.05.2009 Dender EH Dender EH 1-2 HT 0-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
20.12.2008 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-0 HT 1-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
05.04.2008 Dender EH Dender EH 2-4 HT 1-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
03.11.2007 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-0 HT 0-0 Dender EH Dender EH BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dender EH
1-0
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
0.50 xG 1.06
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 7
208 Passes 552
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 29
9 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dender EH vs Sporting Charleroi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dender EH squeezed past Sporting Charleroi 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Charleroi at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Dender EH had 30% of the ball to Sporting Charleroi's 70%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.50 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting Charleroi.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Charleroi led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Dender EH and 2.25 for Sporting Charleroi.

What was the final score of Dender EH vs Sporting Charleroi?

Dender EH 1-0 Sporting Charleroi in the Belgium - Pro League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dender EH vs Sporting Charleroi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Charleroi win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dender EH 35%, draw 22%, Sporting Charleroi 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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