Mechelen 5-0 OH Leuven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 5 Oct 2024

Mechelen
5-0 HT 2-0
OH Leuven
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Mechelen vs OH Leuven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.43
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 25% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.39
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
15%
5.21
X/2
11%
5.87
X/X
8%
4.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
2/2
21%
4.01
2/X
8%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v OH Leuven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY OH Leuven EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.85/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.21
+27% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
18.1 Crosses 16.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4

Mechelen vs OH Leuven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY OH Leuven
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.60 xG 1.86
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
353 Passes 347
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 3-0 HT 0-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
30.03.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-3 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
17.03.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1-0 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
23.09.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 1-2 HT 0-2 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
08.04.2023 OH Leuven OH Leuven 4-1 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
17.09.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 0-0 HT 0-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL

Mechelen 5-0 OH Leuven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
5-0
AWAY OH Leuven
2.31 xG 0.60
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
537 Passes 248
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs OH Leuven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen swept aside OH Leuven 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 37%) promised a tight game; Mechelen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mechelen had 65% of the ball to OH Leuven's 35%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.31 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, OH Leuven led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mechelen and 1.50 for OH Leuven.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs OH Leuven?

Mechelen 5-0 OH Leuven in the Belgium - Pro League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs OH Leuven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 40%, draw 23%, OH Leuven 37%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL More Belgium - Pro League
5 Oct 2024
19:15 Kortrijk vs Genk Analysis →
21:45 Dender EH vs Sporting Charleroi Analysis →