NAC Breda 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Oct 2024

NAC Breda
1-0 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
42%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.52
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
13%
6.29
X/2
6%
5.02
X/X
13%
4.26
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
29%
3.27
2/X
4%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.5pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.6pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 43%
+13% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +19%
1.03/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.47
+2% / +122% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +54%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
18.6 Crosses 15.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 0.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
352 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.05.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
03.05.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
30.10.2020 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
28.02.2020 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
04.10.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
28.05.2017 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-4 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

NAC Breda 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.36 xG 0.44
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
359 Passes 354
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda squeezed past NEC Nijmegen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 51% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 49%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.36 to 0.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 0.83 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?

NAC Breda 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 34%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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