Utrecht 3-2 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.07
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
15%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.5
X/1
18%
3.68
X/2
6%
15.5
X/X
7%
7.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
7%
11.35
2/X
7%
18.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.0pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.4pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.99/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.84
-16% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
25.5 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
2W-4D-0L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 1.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
400 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
16.12.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
31.10.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 3-2 HT 3-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOK
13.05.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 2-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
06.08.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 2-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
02.04.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
3-2
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.54 xG 0.86
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
476 Passes 248
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 4
45 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht edged past RKC Waalwijk 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Utrecht had 64% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 36%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 1.54 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Utrecht and 1.33 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk?

Utrecht 3-2 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 62%, draw 20%, RKC Waalwijk 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
5 Oct 2024
19:45 NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Analysis →
21:00 PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →