PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Oct 2024

PSV Eindhoven
2-1 HT 2-1
Sparta Rotterdam
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.22
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.98
2-3 Goals
34%
2.19
4-5 Goals
27%
2.46
6+ Goals
21%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.35
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
26.5
X/1
26%
3.58
X/2
4%
26.5
X/X
8%
10.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.15
2/2
6%
18.55
2/X
4%
25.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
77%
-11.1pp
19%
Draw
14%
+4.4pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 11%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
2.85/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.31
+18% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +9%
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
437 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 72%
44.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
24.7 Crosses 12.8
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.20 xG 0.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
452 Passes 236
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
37 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.05.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-2 HT 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
08.10.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
06.05.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
10.01.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOK
07.01.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
27.02.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
2-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.74 xG 1.55
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
468 Passes 368
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
33 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven nicked a narrow win over Sparta Rotterdam 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 54% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 46%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.74 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.67 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 66%, draw 19%, Sparta Rotterdam 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5
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