Havadar 1-2 Esteghlal Khuzestan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
38%
3.64
Away
38%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.44
No
52%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.15
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
22%
2/1
3%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+7.4pp
38%
Draw
25%
+13.4pp
38%
Away Win
59%
-20.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
37%
+11.4pp
52%
BTTS No
63%
-11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Havadar EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Esteghlal Khuzestan EU Bookmakers 62%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
0.37/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.59
-42% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -13%
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Havadar
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
01.06.2024 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-1 HT 1-0 Havadar Havadar IRAN
17.03.2024 Havadar Havadar 0-1 HT 0-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
31.12.2023 Havadar Havadar 2-0 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
20.10.2023 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 HT 1-2 Havadar Havadar IRAN
15.04.2023 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 6-1 HT 0-0 Havadar Havadar IRAN
28.10.2022 Havadar Havadar 0-1 HT 0-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
POST-MATCH Havadar vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esteghlal Khuzestan nicked a narrow win over Havadar 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (24% / 38% / 38%) promised a tight game; Esteghlal Khuzestan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esteghlal Khuzestan led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Havadar and 2.33 for Esteghlal Khuzestan.

What was the final score of Havadar vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?

Havadar 1-2 Esteghlal Khuzestan in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Havadar vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Esteghlal Khuzestan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Havadar 24%, draw 38%, Esteghlal Khuzestan 38%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (24/38/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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