Umm Salal 5-0 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar - Yıldızlar Cup, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.46
No
52%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
22%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.36 — our 28% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
64%
-16.1pp
52%
BTTS No
36%
+16.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.92/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.66
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
16.8 Crosses 5.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.30 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
249 Passes 378
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2024 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-4 HT 0-2 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KATEK
07.04.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
25.11.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
17.03.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
06.09.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-2 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
18.01.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Umm Salal
5-0
AWAY Al Gharafa
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal ran out comfortable winners over Al Gharafa 5-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Umm Salal as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Umm Salal had 37% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 63%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Umm Salal and 2.00 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?

Umm Salal 5-0 Al Gharafa in the Qatar - Yıldızlar Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Umm Salal win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 46%, draw 26%, Al Gharafa 29%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Umm Salal), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Umm Salal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KATYK More Qatar - Yıldızlar Cup
5 Oct 2024
19:45 Al Shamal vs Al Khor Analysis →