Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Umm Salal v Al Gharafa — Team-Based Signals
Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
Al Gharafa
KAT
1-2
HT 0-1
Al Gharafa
KAT
2-2
HT 1-1
Umm Salal
KAT
3-1
HT 1-1
Al Gharafa
KAT
1-0
HT 0-0
Umm Salal
KAT
Umm Salal 2-4 Al Gharafa — Actual Match Statistics
Al Gharafa saw off Umm Salal 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
On the day, Umm Salal had 44% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 56%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.54 to 1.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Umm Salal.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Umm Salal and 1.50 for Al Gharafa.
What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
Umm Salal 2-4 Al Gharafa in the KATEK on 14/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?
Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 24%, draw 17%, Al Gharafa 60%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.