Umm Salal 2-4 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — KATEK, 14 May 2024

📅14/05/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
17%
4.19
Away
59%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
26%
X/X
4%
2/1
3%
2/2
30%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+2.3pp
17%
Draw
20%
-3.8pp
60%
Away Win
58%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.68 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
242 Passes 380
65% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
25.11.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
17.03.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
06.09.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-2 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
18.01.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
27.09.2021 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-0 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Umm Salal
2-4
AWAY Al Gharafa
2.54 xG 1.35
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
276 Passes 370
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa saw off Umm Salal 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Umm Salal had 44% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 56%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.54 to 1.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Umm Salal.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Umm Salal and 1.50 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?

Umm Salal 2-4 Al Gharafa in the KATEK on 14/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 24%, draw 17%, Al Gharafa 60%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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