Mazatlan 2-2 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 20%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
2.37/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.69
-49% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
46.0 Crosses 16.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 1.22
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
381 Passes 261
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-2 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
28.10.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
20.02.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
17.08.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
20.02.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 2-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
23.10.2021 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
2-2
AWAY Queretaro
1.43 xG 2.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 7
346 Passes 420
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and Queretaro shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 45% of the ball to Queretaro's 55%, shots finished 13-21, expected goals 1.43 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mazatlan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mazatlan and 0.83 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Queretaro?

Mazatlan 2-2 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 52%, draw 25%, Queretaro 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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