Tijuana 2-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 24% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.3pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 38%
+7% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.67/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.41
+17% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.6 Crosses 16.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.73 xG 2.03
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
248 Passes 316
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 3-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
11.11.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
27.02.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.09.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 6-1 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
12.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
07.11.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 3-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-1
AWAY Pachuca
0.77 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
402 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana edged past Pachuca 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Tijuana made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Tijuana had 59% of the ball to Pachuca's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.77 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pachuca.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tijuana and 2.33 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Pachuca?

Tijuana 2-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 40%, draw 30%, Pachuca 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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