Sukhothai 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.68
No
40%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-4.0pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.2pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sukhothai EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.53/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.31
+5% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
29.1 Crosses 13.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sukhothai
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.82 xG 1.05
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
356 Passes 162
81% Pass Accuracy 65%
22 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
10.03.2023 Sukhothai Sukhothai 2-3 HT 0-3 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima TAY
14.10.2022 Nakhon Ratchasima Nakhon Ratchasima 1-1 HT 1-1 Sukhothai Sukhothai TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sukhothai
1-0
AWAY Nakhon Ratchasima
1.44 xG 0.66
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
339 Passes 292
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sukhothai vs Nakhon Ratchasima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sukhothai edged past Nakhon Ratchasima 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sukhothai as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sukhothai had 52% of the ball to Nakhon Ratchasima's 48%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.44 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nakhon Ratchasima led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sukhothai and 2.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima.

What was the final score of Sukhothai vs Nakhon Ratchasima?

Sukhothai 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima in the Thailand - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sukhothai vs Nakhon Ratchasima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sukhothai win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sukhothai 48%, draw 29%, Nakhon Ratchasima 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sukhothai) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sukhothai) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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