Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

Aston Villa
2-1 HT 1-0
Burnley
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Aston Villa vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
13.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.51 — our 23% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.97
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.8
X/1
12%
3.97
X/2
7%
11.35
X/X
7%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.0
2/2
7%
9.68
2/X
6%
18.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
60%
+2.3pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.4pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
2.12/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.82
+17% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.6 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Aston Villa vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Burnley
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.22 xG 1.04
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
386 Passes 254
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-2 HT 2-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
27.08.2023 Burnley Burnley 1-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
07.05.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
27.01.2021 Burnley Burnley 3-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
17.12.2020 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
2-1
AWAY Burnley
1.16 xG 0.41
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
434 Passes 331
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa edged past Burnley 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 55% of the ball to Burnley's 45%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.16 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Burnley?

Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 62%, draw 20%, Burnley 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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