Newcastle United 2-0 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.89
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
23%
4.07
X/2
8%
11.55
X/X
8%
6.12
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
8%
9.2
2/X
7%
17.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.0pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.9pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -2%
1.85/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.75
+4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -27%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.9 Crosses 13.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.00 xG 1.45
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
433 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2025 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-3 HT 4-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
10.11.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-3 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
28.08.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
10.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
17.03.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
2-0
AWAY Nottingham Forest
3.45 xG 0.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
387 Passes 372
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United beat Nottingham Forest 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 51% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 49%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 3.45 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.83 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?

Newcastle United 2-0 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 57%, draw 19%, Nottingham Forest 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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