Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 Nov 2024

Nottingham Forest
1-3 HT 1-0
Newcastle United
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
11%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.82
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.71
X/2
13%
5.56
X/X
9%
4.42
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.69
2/X
8%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.31/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.50
+2% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
19.2 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.59
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
264 Passes 430
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
10.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
17.03.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
06.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
29.08.2018 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK

Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-3
AWAY Newcastle United
0.58 xG 1.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
299 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 33
23 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Newcastle United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 44% of the ball to Newcastle United's 56%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.58 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.67 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 38%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ BTTS Yes
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