Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 Nov 2024

Chelsea
1-1 HT 0-0
Arsenal
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.03
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
9%
6.1
X/2
15%
5.39
X/X
9%
4.66
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
13%
3.38
2/X
9%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
1.27/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.21
-15% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +15%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
279 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 447 · 83%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.2 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Chelsea vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Arsenal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.82 xG 2.03
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
437 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.04.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 5-0 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
21.10.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
02.05.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
06.11.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
24.07.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 4-0 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea FLO
20.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-4 HT 2-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-1
AWAY Arsenal
1.54 xG 1.55
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
358 Passes 375
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea and Arsenal shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Chelsea had 49% of the ball to Arsenal's 51%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.54 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 3.17 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Arsenal?

Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 36%, draw 27%, Arsenal 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
10 Nov 2024
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