Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
55%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
7.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.69 — our 27% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.73
1/2
6%
20.9
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
5%
9.73
X/2
13%
4.24
X/X
12%
5.84
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
36%
2.13
2/X
6%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
22%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
55%
Away Win
54%
+1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.9pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 58%
+49% / +49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.47/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.88/0.98
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +140%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 80%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.8
17.5 Crosses 24.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.44 xG 1.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
259 Passes 427
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
17.03.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
06.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
29.08.2018 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
23.08.2017 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2 HT 2-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Newcastle United at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.83 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United in the England - League Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 21%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 55%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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