Wolverhampton 2-0 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.73
No
59%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
19%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 31% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.95
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.65
X/1
18%
3.88
X/2
10%
11.15
X/X
10%
5.99
2/1
6%
21.35
2/2
11%
8.3
2/X
8%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
54%
-12.4pp
59%
BTTS No
46%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
1.02/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.03
-47% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
20.6 Crosses 16.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolverhampton
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Burnley
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.83 xG 1.26
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
413 Passes 263
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.04.2024 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 1-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
05.12.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
24.04.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
01.12.2021 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
25.04.2021 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-4 HT 0-3 Burnley Burnley İNP
21.12.2020 Burnley Burnley 2-1 HT 1-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolverhampton
2-0
AWAY Burnley
2.47 xG 0.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 0
442 Passes 431
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolverhampton vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolverhampton beat Burnley 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Wolverhampton as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Wolverhampton had 50% of the ball to Burnley's 50%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 2.47 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.33 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Wolverhampton vs Burnley?

Wolverhampton 2-0 Burnley in the England - League Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolverhampton vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolverhampton win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Wolverhampton 50%, draw 25%, Burnley 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolverhampton), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wolverhampton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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