Cardiff City 3-5 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 28 Aug 2024

📅28/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.03
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
1/X
9%
16.35
X/1
12%
10.4
X/2
16%
3.83
X/X
9%
5.57
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.03
2/X
6%
15.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
19%
+10.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-11.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -55%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
231 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.5
Crosses 10.0
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
234 Passes 512
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
02.12.2023 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
27.07.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-4 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton HAZ
09.02.2019 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNP
08.12.2018 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
12.04.2014 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
3-5
AWAY Southampton
0.68 xG 0.90
27% Ball Possession 73%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
220 Passes 718
80% Pass Accuracy 93%
12 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton beat Cardiff City 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cardiff City had 27% of the ball to Southampton's 73%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.68 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff City and 1.33 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Southampton?

Cardiff City 3-5 Southampton in the England - League Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 30%, draw 24%, Southampton 46%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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