West Ham United 1-0 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 28 Aug 2024

West Ham United
1-0 HT 0-0
Bournemouth
📅28/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

West Ham United vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.55
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
11%
4.55
X/2
9%
7.43
X/X
16%
5.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.35
2/2
11%
4.97
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.3pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.1pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.0pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

West Ham United v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.17/2.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.88
+29% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
– Crosses 18.0
– Yellow Cards 1.0

West Ham United vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.79 xG 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 Passes 433
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
12.08.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
23.04.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-4 HT 0-3 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
24.10.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 2-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
01.01.2020 West Ham United West Ham United 4-0 HT 3-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
28.09.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-2 HT 1-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP

West Ham United 1-0 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
1-0
AWAY Bournemouth
0.89 xG 1.06
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 Passes 348
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United squeezed past Bournemouth 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had West Ham United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, West Ham United had 49% of the ball to Bournemouth's 51%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.89 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, West Ham United had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for West Ham United and 0.67 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Bournemouth?

West Ham United 1-0 Bournemouth in the England - League Cup on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 44%, draw 28%, Bournemouth 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Ham United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (West Ham United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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