Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

Nottingham Forest
2-3 HT 2-2
Newcastle United
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.26
2-3 Goals
35%
1.86
4-5 Goals
29%
2.94
6+ Goals
13%
8.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.36
1/2
7%
22.9
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
12%
6.67
X/2
12%
4.91
X/X
13%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.5
2/2
19%
2.85
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-5.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -9%
1.03/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.74
+9% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
288 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.5 Crosses 12.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
250 Passes 399
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 40
10 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
17.03.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
06.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
29.08.2018 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
23.08.2017 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2 HT 2-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
30.12.2016 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
2-3
AWAY Newcastle United
1.50 xG 0.48
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
289 Passes 546
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United squeezed past Nottingham Forest 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Newcastle United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 38% of the ball to Newcastle United's 62%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.50 to 0.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nottingham Forest.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.83 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 38%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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