Newcastle United 4-3 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 23 Feb 2025

Newcastle United
4-3 HT 4-1
Nottingham Forest
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.51
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 28% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.48
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
21%
4.86
X/2
11%
8.14
X/X
11%
5.61
2/1
9%
21.0
2/2
12%
5.51
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.0pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.49/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.17
+17% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
36.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.9 Crosses 15.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
433 Passes 256
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-3 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
28.08.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
10.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
17.03.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
06.08.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP

Newcastle United 4-3 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
4-3
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.91 xG 1.79
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
379 Passes 253
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United edged past Nottingham Forest 4-3. Half-time: 4-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 57% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 43%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 2.91 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?

Newcastle United 4-3 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 46%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Under 2.5
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