AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
14%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.7
6+ Goals
16%
6.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.63
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
21%
3.97
X/2
4%
15.1
X/X
7%
7.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
18%
20.1
2/2
6%
12.05
2/X
4%
20.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 18% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
68%
+1.2pp
17%
Draw
18%
-1.1pp
14%
Away Win
14%
-0.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+5.3pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.21/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.80
-4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
19.7 Crosses 13.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Telstar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
29.10.2015 Telstar Telstar 0-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-1
AWAY Telstar
3.96 xG 1.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
28 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
387 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
61 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar nicked a narrow win over Telstar 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 59% of the ball to Telstar's 41%, shots finished 28-14, expected goals 3.96 to 1.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar's control.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 69%, draw 17%, Telstar 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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