Portland Hearts of Pine 1-3 Forward Madison — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 5 Oct 2025

Portland Hearts of Pine
1-3 HT 0-2
Forward Madison
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - USL League 1 – 2025

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.78
Over
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.2pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portland Hearts of Pine v Forward Madison — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Forward Madison The Market 29%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.56/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.33
-70% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 74%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.0 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Forward Madison
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.65 xG 1.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
204 Passes 362
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2025 Forward Madison Forward Madison 1-1 HT 1-1 Portland Hearts of Pine Portland Hearts of Pine USL1

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-3 Forward Madison — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
1-3
AWAY Forward Madison
1.03 xG 2.15
68% Ball Possession 32%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
400 Passes 131
81% Pass Accuracy 53%
12 Box Touches 19
31 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forward Madison beat Portland Hearts of Pine 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Portland Hearts of Pine at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 68% of the ball to Forward Madison's 32%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.03 to 2.15.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison?

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-3 Forward Madison in the USA - USL League 1 on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Forward Madison?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 46%, draw 27%, Forward Madison 27%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✓ BTTS Yes
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