Connahs Quay 2-1 Colwyn Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
18%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 28% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
52%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
18%
Away Win
24%
-5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.7pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.77/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.14
+3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +45%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Colwyn Bay
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-1 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
29.11.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-3 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
26.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
12.11.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-0 HT 2-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GALWK
19.02.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-2 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GALWK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
2-1
AWAY Colwyn Bay
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay nicked a narrow win over Colwyn Bay 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 46% of the ball to Colwyn Bay's 54%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.20 for Colwyn Bay.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay?

Connahs Quay 2-1 Colwyn Bay in the Wales - Premier League on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 57%, draw 25%, Colwyn Bay 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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